Obama Loses Bin Laden Bump

According to a Washington Post-ABC News poll, Americans remain pessimistic about the country's direction. By a two-to-one margin, they say the U.S. is on the wrong track. Sixty percent say the economic recovery has not yet begun. And, the poll suggests any popularity bounce President Obama received after the killing of Osama Bin Laden is now gone. Melissa Block talks with NPR's Ron Elving about the Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

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MELISSA BLOCK, host:

And according to that Washington Post-ABC News Poll that Ari just mentioned, Americans remain pessimistic about the country's direction. By a two-to-one margin, they say the U.S. is on the wrong track. Almost 60 percent say the economic recovery has not yet begun. And the poll suggests any popularity bounce that President Obama received after the killing of Osama Bin Laden is now gone.

Joining us is NPR's Washington editor Ron Elving. Ron, thanks for coming in.

RON ELVING: Good to be with you, Melissa.

BLOCK: And a month ago, the president's poll numbers seemed to be going in the opposite direction. What's changed?

ELVING: A month ago, the news was Osama bin Laden being killed - very good for president. The last two weeks, all the news has been full of these negative indicators about the economic recovery - very bad for the president. Now, there are other issues: everything from health care to Afghanistan. The president has his critics on all those issues. But his most important problems have to do with people making a living and making ends meet.

That's unemployment - jobless numbers ticked up last week - gas prices, housing markets stuck in the mire, stock market turning down. All those negative indicators come dog-piling on what had already been largely a negative economic outlook in the public at large and a sour mood got more so.

BLOCK: The poll also asked people how they would vote if the presidential election were held today. And among the Republicans, it's Mitt Romney faring the best. He was neck and neck with President Obama.

ELVING: Yes, among all respondents in this poll the two are dead even. And among registered voters, Romney has a slight lead. Now, some might say that's hardly surprising, given all the other numbers in this poll. After all, re-election campaigns are usually referenda on the president, his performance, and the economy is usually the biggest issue of concern.

BLOCK: And they're really striking numbers, Ron. If you look at how independents are responding to this poll: two-thirds of the independents disapprove of how the president is handling the economy, and it's independent voters who seem to be giving former Governor Mitt Romney the edge.

ELVING: That's right. Independents, who broke for Obama in 2008 and even more so for Republicans in 2010, are now largely looking for an alternative, and the president's going to need at least an even split among independents if he's going to win a second term. And right now, as you say, they're breaking slightly towards Romney.

BLOCK: What about match-ups with the president against other Republicans that are in the running or seem to be in the running so far?

ELVING: President did much better against the rest of the Republican field, much of which is not that well-know. This Post-ABC poll showed him leading by five other Republican prospects by 10 points or more. And the five were Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Tim Pawlenty, Michelle Bachmann and Sarah Palin. The president was leading Sarah Palin by 17 points.

BLOCK: OK. We're still, what, 17 months before the presidential election. Why don't you give us some historical perspective on numbers like this: economic trouble, a presidential approval rating now below 50 percent?

ELVING: Well, history's been a source of some comfort for the White House with this election coming on. They like to look back at the Reagan numbers in 1983. When Reagan was at the comparable point in his presidency in June of 1983, his approval was only 45 percent. Now, he was coming up from a low of 35 at the beginning of 1983, the low point of his presidency, so maybe that 45 looked a little better than 47 does to Barack Obama right now.

Looking at Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon, they were also under 50 percent at the comparable point of their presidencies. But Reagan and Nixon and Clinton all won re-election with varying degrees of ease.

Now, that having been said, no one on Obama's team is expecting an easy re-election. They know the economy is not coming back as fast or as strong as it did for Ronald Reagan in 1983 and 1984. We are now talking about a global economy, much more global economy, and that makes a difference.

BLOCK: OK. NPR's senior Washington editor Ron Elving. Thanks so much.

ELVING: Thank you, Melissa.

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Source: http://www.npr.org/2011/06/07/137042276/obama-loses-bin-laden-bump?ft=1&f=1014

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